Fuel surcharges just hit an all-time record — what that means for every shipper
On September 7, 2026, the DOE/EIA weekly diesel benchmark — the number that determines the fuel surcharge on nearly every freight invoice in America — hit $5.967 per gallon. That surpassed the previous record of $5.810 set in June 2022. The national average is closing in on $6. Energy analyst Jeffrey Currie said topping $6 within days is "all but guaranteed."
This isn't a number to read and move on from. The DOE/EIA weekly average is the benchmark most carriers use to reset their fuel surcharge tables — and it flows straight into shipper invoices within days, not weeks. If you haven't already received surcharge adjustment notices from your carriers this week, expect them before the weekend. The record that was set on Wednesday is already in your next freight bill.
Here's what's driving the record, what it's costing shippers across every mode right now, and — most importantly — what to do about it heading into the most expensive freight season of the year.
How diesel got here — and why it's different from 2022
The last time diesel prices hit these levels was June 2022, when post-COVID demand and supply chain disruption pushed the weekly benchmark to $5.810. That spike was painful — but it was driven primarily by demand outpacing a supply chain that was still recovering. It peaked and pulled back relatively quickly as supply caught up.
The 2026 spike is structurally different. It isn't just a demand story. It's a simultaneous failure of supply across multiple independent sources — each of which would have been disruptive on its own. Together, they've created a diesel shortage unlike anything the U.S. freight market has seen in the modern era.
Driver 01
Strait of Hormuz Closure
Since February 28, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz removed roughly 25% of the world's seaborne oil trade from the market. The six-month duration of the disruption has drawn global distillate inventories down by an estimated 400 million barrels — creating a supply hole that can't be filled quickly even if the strait fully reopens.
Driver 02
Russia's Diesel Export Ban
Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian refinery facilities has taken roughly half of Russia's refining capacity offline. Russian middle-distillate exports — which exceeded 800,000 barrels per day in 2025 — collapsed to approximately 50,000 barrels per day by late July. That volume has been physically removed from the global diesel market.
Driver 03
U.S. Refinery Capacity Maxed Out
U.S. refinery utilization is running at 98% — effectively at maximum capacity. There is no domestic production surge available to absorb the international supply shock. Refiners are also prioritizing high-margin jet fuel over diesel, which further constrains available supply heading into peak trucking and harvest season.
Driver 04
Empty Distillate Inventories
A cold U.S. winter had already drawn down distillate inventories heading into spring. The EIA projects U.S. distillate inventories will fall below 100 million barrels in September — and stay below the five-year low for much of 2027. There is no inventory buffer to absorb the demand of peak freight and harvest season.
The result of these four simultaneous pressures is a crack spread — the price difference between diesel and crude oil — that surged past $100 per barrel on September 1, a fivefold jump from its pre-conflict baseline of approximately $20 per barrel. That level signals high product scarcity and an unprecedented refining premium. The crisis, in other words, isn't just in oil supply. It's in the refining capacity to turn available crude into the diesel the freight industry runs on.
The $120 million per day math
The domestic transportation sector consumes roughly 120 million gallons of diesel daily. At that consumption rate, every $1.00-per-gallon increase in retail diesel imposes an estimated $120 million per day in direct additional costs across the U.S. freight system. From February's $3.72 per gallon to today's $5.97, that's a $2.25 increase — representing approximately $270 million in additional daily freight system costs compared to the start of the year. Those costs don't disappear. They move through the system as surcharges, rate increases, and carrier exits — and ultimately land on shippers and consumers.
What this is costing shippers across every mode right now
The diesel record isn't an abstract headline. It is showing up directly on freight invoices across every mode — and the impact varies by how each mode's surcharge structure is built.
Truckload (FTL)
$0.42 – $0.68 / mile
Current per-mile fuel surcharge on standard equipment. Reefer runs $0.55–$0.68. Combined with record operating costs, fuel now represents up to 28% of total cost per mile for carriers.
LTL
40%+ of linehaul
LTL fuel surcharges have jumped from the mid-20s to above 40% of linehaul in under 12 months — a level that in some cases makes the surcharge larger than the base freight rate on short lanes.
Truckload Rate Impact
+15% freight rates
The roughly 63% year-on-year diesel rise has pushed truck freight rates up approximately 15% — on top of the structural rate increases from tightening capacity that were already underway before fuel began surging.
Fuel Surcharge Spike
~300% increase
Fuel surcharges have spiked approximately 300% year over year as diesel moved from roughly $3.50 to $5.97 per gallon — adding approximately $0.30 per mile to carrier operating costs in that move alone.
The surcharge stacking problem compounds the base-rate issue. Peak season parcel surcharges are now locking in simultaneously — Amazon Shipping's 2026 holiday delivery surcharges will be more expensive than last year's, with the highest rate spanning November. Record diesel surcharges, peak season parcel surcharges, and elevated base rates are hitting freight budgets at the same time, from three different directions.
"Fuel is back in the contract as a first-order variable. Shippers that still treat fuel as market noise will see volatility show up in accessorials and routing-guide compliance — and they will keep being surprised by it."
How long will this last?
The EIA's September 9 Short-Term Energy Outlook — the most current official forecast available — delivers an uncomfortable message for shippers hoping for near-term relief: elevated diesel prices are likely to persist through the rest of 2026 and into next year.
The EIA forecasts Brent crude to average around $90 per barrel for the second half of 2026, with prices expected to ease to an average of $74 per barrel in 2027 as production recovers and inventories begin to rebuild. U.S. distillate inventories are forecast to fall below 100 million barrels in September and stay below the five-year low for much of 2027.
Using EIA's weekly price observations through September 7, the 2026 year-to-date average sits at approximately $4.895 per gallon for diesel. If September 7 prices simply remain unchanged through year-end, diesel would finish 2026 at roughly $5.22 per gallon — comfortably above the 2022 annual record. The annual record is no longer a question of whether — it's a question of by how much.
Three variables will determine whether prices ease sooner than the EIA baseline or spike further: Hormuz transit data showing whether oil flows are normalizing, Russian refinery restart announcements signaling whether the export ban may be lifted, and weekly EIA distillate inventory builds showing whether supply tightness is easing. None of those three signals is currently moving in the direction of relief.
What shippers need to do right now
The DOE/EIA weekly benchmark resets fuel surcharge tables within days of publication. If you haven't reviewed your contracts against the current index this week, do it now. Understand exactly which benchmark each carrier uses, how frequently it resets, and what your surcharge percentage is at the current $5.967 price point. Shippers who know their surcharge structure can forecast costs. Those who don't will keep being surprised by invoices.
The EIA's own forecast projects diesel remaining elevated through the rest of 2026 and into 2027. Freight budgets built on the assumption that diesel will pull back meaningfully before year-end are built on a scenario the EIA doesn't support. Model your Q4 transportation costs at $5.97, $6.50, and $7.00 per gallon. The cost of running those scenarios is hours. The cost of a Q4 budget built on wishful thinking is the gap between your plan and your actual freight spend — during the most expensive shipping season of the year.
Rail moves one ton of freight 470 miles on a single gallon of fuel compared to a truck's 100 to 150 miles per gallon. At $6 diesel, the fuel efficiency gap between modes has never translated into a larger absolute dollar advantage on qualifying lanes. If you're running regular truckload freight on lanes of 750 miles or more without a current intermodal quote, you're likely leaving 20% to 30% in savings on the table — savings that have grown significantly larger since your last fuel price was this high.
At record diesel prices, the cost per unit of moving a truck that is 60% full versus 95% full has never been more punishing. Every underutilized load is paying full fuel surcharge for wasted capacity. Audit your average load utilization by lane and identify where consolidation — combining shipments, adjusting order minimums, or shifting to a different shipping cadence — can reduce the number of trucks moved without reducing the freight delivered.
Most fuel surcharge tables are open-ended — as the index rises, the surcharge rises with no ceiling. In new contract negotiations, explore whether carriers will accept a fuel surcharge cap, a different indexing benchmark, or a fixed fuel component in exchange for volume commitment or extended contract terms. Not every carrier will agree — but in a market where shippers represent reliable, committed volume, there is more negotiating room on surcharge structure than most shippers realize.
Don't wait for diesel prices to move before adjusting your strategy — watch the indicators that move first. Hormuz transit data showing daily vessel crossings recovering toward the pre-war average of 15 tankers per window signals oil supply normalization. Russian refinery restart announcements signal the return of middle-distillate export capacity. Weekly EIA distillate inventory builds — currently drawing down, not building — signal the turning point in U.S. supply tightness. When all three move in the right direction together, meaningful diesel price relief will follow.
The three signals to watch
Hormuz Transit Volume
Current: fewer than 20 vessels per day vs. pre-war average of ~15 tankers per window. Watch for: sustained recovery toward pre-conflict levels as a leading indicator of oil supply normalization.
Russian Refinery Restarts
Current: ~50,000 b/d of middle-distillate exports vs. 800,000+ b/d pre-ban. Watch for: official announcements of refinery capacity returning and export ban lifting as a signal of global diesel supply recovery.
EIA Distillate Inventories
Current: drawing down toward sub-100M barrel level — below 5-year low. Watch for: weekly inventory builds (not draws) in the EIA Thursday report as the first signal that supply tightness is beginning to ease.
ULSD Futures & CFTC Positioning
Current: ULSD futures settled at $4.8010 on Wednesday, up 5.11% in a single session. Watch for: hedge fund positioning data showing institutional sentiment beginning to unwind as a leading indicator of price direction shifts.
The bottom line
The fuel surcharge benchmark that resets most carrier contracts just hit an all-time record. The DOE/EIA weekly average reached $5.967 per gallon — surpassing the previous nominal weekly high of $5.810 set in June 2022. The national average is closing in on $6. The EIA projects elevated prices through the rest of 2026 and into 2027. And unlike 2022's demand-driven spike, this one is rooted in simultaneous supply failures — Hormuz, Russian refineries, maxed-out U.S. capacity, depleted inventories — that don't resolve on a convenient timeline.
The freight market heading into peak season is carrying record fuel costs, record surcharges, tightening capacity, and peak season parcel surcharges — all at once. The shippers who will manage Q4 best are the ones who audit their surcharge structures this week, rebuild their budgets around current reality, run intermodal analyses on their longest lanes, and stop treating fuel as market noise. At Joyner, understanding what drives freight costs — and helping shippers build strategies that account for those costs honestly — is part of what we do every day.